Monday, December 8, 2014

American Birth Rate A Serious Problem

The United States birth rate dipped to 62.5 births per 1,000 women between ages 15 and 44, according to the report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).  That is 10 percent lower than the birth rate in 2007, which was 69.3 per 1,000 women, and a record low since the government started tracking birth rates in 1909, when birth rate was 126.8.

Dippy numbers but they reflect the labor pool over the four decades beginning in 2025, and extending to 2065.  In 2025 the Baby-Boom generation will begin to die off, or basically be retired.

The  Baby-Boom generation covers a two decade long period which began in 1945 and extended to 1966 – as a result, it began to retire [age 62-70] between 2007 and 2015; that retirement will continue until the period 2028-2036.

Note the peak in Baby-Boom births was in 1964, which places the peak Social Security demand around 2026-2034.

Look at the way the year overlap.  Half the work life of the baby drought will be devoted to paying Social Security for the Baby-Boom generation.  But how will they expect to earn that money, and pay the debt-service on the National Debt?

In 2014 the interest alone was $430 Billion (roughly about twice what it had been in 1988).

In terms of actual births, 4.3 million births in 1957 and 1961 represent the maximum and correspond to the current rate – indicating a one to one ratio relative to those who will retire between 2019 and 2031.  But that ratio excludes all the others born in years other than 1957 & 1961.


If we look at the graph, those who retired prior to ‘75 were being supported by those born prior to 1934; those born in 1934 were retired by 1999 and supported by those born in 1955 – who will be retired by 2020.

Aside from the economics, America does not have soldiers.  Currently, the bulk of both male and female US population is between 49 and 58.

The numbers of those of  military age are dropping with the birthrate.  America cannot afford a war – in terms of active duty service personnel.  A war means taking people out of the economy, while building the National Debt – which means incurring debt while killing off those whose earnings are needed to pay both the existing liabilities and those associated with war.

To complicate things, the cost of oil is falling and thus the cost of gasoline, which will encourage increased gas usage, and accelerate the decline in American Reserves.  The United States started the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 1975 as a response to the 1973-74 oil embargo.  in 2013, the USA had a 37 day reserve supply, based on 18.49 million barrels per day.  If it were effectively dry – which it will be in one or two decades – how long could America fight a war against the Islamic State and its vast oil reserves?

Shrinking resources, shrinking population – a Congress that is anti-immigration and exploring the defunding of Customs and Immigration Services … no Customs agent, means no imports and no business or tourist travel into the USA.

"Death Over Life: Secret of Revelation: A Prophecy of America's Destruction" 2015/16 marks the beginning of the end for American power, and the beginning of the era when the Televangelists get the famed End-of-Days they have been pushing for the past 50-60 years.




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